Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3900 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3900 STS 06:25 → SAN 08:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3047 STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3900 Southwest	STS 06:25	SAN 08:04	5%	1%	1.2%	no record
AS 3315 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 06:26	SAN 08:15	11%	4%	5.2%	88%
OO 3046 SkyWest	STS 18:45	SAN 20:33	13%	5%	2.3%	no record
AS 3047 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 11:04	SAN 12:50	16%	6%	2.1%	60%
AS 2257 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 17:56	SAN 19:35	58%	18%	3.8%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON