Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 1331 Alaska	STS 07:07	SEA 09:05	21%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 1322 Alaska Flight history →	STS 17:32	SEA 19:29	22%	4%	0.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 13:06 → LAS 14:44AS 2459 · flown by Horizon	1h 42m Las Vegas	LAS 16:26 → SEA 19:02AS 749	5h 56m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m San Diego	SAN 14:53 → SEA 17:47AS 685	6h 43m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	STS 09:53 → BUR 11:28AS 3213 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Burbank	BUR 14:22 → SEA 16:51AS 478	6h 58m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	STS 08:30 → SNA 10:12AS 3287 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Santa Ana	SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548	6h 24m	93%	70%
Alaska Details →	STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m San Diego	SAN 09:32 → SEA 12:29AS 609	6h 03m	94%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	STS 19:03 → PDX 20:36AS 2331 · flown by Horizon	54m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	3h 24m	50%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON