Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23% (calm day: 12%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:33, 88% on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Charlotte Amalie). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	9h 40m	98%	88%
American Details →	STT 13:42 → MIA 16:45AA 943	2h 49m Miami	MIA 19:34 → DFW 21:32AA 2289	8h 50m	98%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON