Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23% (calm day: 11%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:33, 86% on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	9h 22m	97%	86%
American Details →	STT 13:42 → MIA 16:45AA 943	3h 05m Miami	MIA 19:50 → JFK 23:01AA 1357	9h 19m	98%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON