Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:33, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	8h 25m	97%	77%
JetBlue Details →	STT 15:38 → SJU 16:20B6 435	2h 22m San Juan	SJU 18:42 → MCO 21:59B6 2134	6h 21m	95%	70%
American Details →	STT 13:42 → MIA 16:45AA 943	2h 52m Miami	MIA 19:37 → MCO 20:52AA 2803	7h 10m	98%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON