Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 14:38, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	3h 38m Denver	DEN 20:23 → ORD 23:46UA 377	8h 08m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	7h 19m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON