Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 07:20 → SLC 08:27DL 4037 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 43m	99%	82%
United Details →	SUN 15:33 → LAX 17:09UA 6008 · flown by SkyWest	1h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 18:57 → SFO 20:36UA 2837	6h 03m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	4h 02m	92%	75%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 02m	90%	71%
Alaska Details →	SUN 10:20 → SEA 11:14AS 2325 · flown by Horizon	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 13:20 → SFO 15:31AS 680	6h 11m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON