Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 3425 at 06:13, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3425 SYR 06:13 → IAD 07:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3425 Republic	SYR 06:13	IAD 07:27	5%	2%	1.6%	no record
UA 4860 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 06:00	IAD 07:28	10%	10%	0.0%	90%
UA 4840 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 10:30	IAD 11:55	10%	7%	3.2%	90%
UA 4853 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 19:52	IAD 21:20	19%	10%	4.0%	81%
UA 4362 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 14:55	IAD 16:23	22%	15%	12.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON