Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3905 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3905 TPA 07:01 → AUS 08:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3508 TPA 18:58 → AUS 20:46 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3905 Southwest	TPA 07:01	AUS 08:33	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
DL 487 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:44	AUS 14:26	12%	4%	1.3%	83%
WN 3907 Southwest	TPA 16:14	AUS 17:45	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 3508 SkyWest	TPA 18:58	AUS 20:46	25%	8%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON