tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3559 at 09:49, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3559 Southwest TPA 09:49 BHM 10:22 9% 4% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 5h 55m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012 5h 39m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484 6h 08m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163 6h 10m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:20DL 1099 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:02 → BHM 19:05DL 3044 6h 21m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:38 → ATL 18:16DL 1720 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → BHM 21:38DL 2257 6h 00m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034 5h 59m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202 5h 40m 96% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:38 → ATL 18:16DL 1720 46m Atlanta ATL 19:02 → BHM 19:05DL 3044 3h 27m 68% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON