Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2307 at 07:49 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2307 TPA 07:49 → BNA 08:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3639 TPA 18:07 → BNA 19:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2307 Southwest	TPA 07:49	BNA 08:43	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 3909 Southwest	TPA 11:56	BNA 12:50	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3908 Southwest	TPA 10:02	BNA 10:56	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	TPA 12:33	BNA 13:37	15%	4%	1.8%	no record
WN 2186 Southwest	TPA 15:36	BNA 16:31	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 4050 Southwest	TPA 19:33	BNA 20:28	20%	5%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	TPA 18:07	BNA 19:15	22%	7%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON