Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2406 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2406 TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 592 TPA 14:51 → BOS 18:02 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2406 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:00	BOS 10:09	6%	3%	1.3%	95%
B6 1192 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:19	BOS 10:40	8%	3%	2.7%	89%
DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:23	BOS 14:35	16%	4%	2.1%	78%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	TPA 21:11	BOS 00:27	19%	10%	1.8%	72%
B6 692 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 10:56	BOS 14:07	19%	6%	2.7%	69%
B6 592 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 14:51	BOS 18:02	26%	12%	3.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON