tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1343 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1343 Southwest TPA 06:22 BUF 09:07 2% 2% 1.0% no record
WN 2769 Southwest TPA 19:09 BUF 21:58 14% 5% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 6h 03m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 4h 56m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 7h 27m 100% 87%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 06:30 → BOS 09:33B6 1192 2h 30m Boston BOS 12:03 → BUF 13:47B6 915 7h 17m 99% 87%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 07:13 → JFK 10:07B6 226 3h 22m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59B6 2902 7h 46m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → TPA 08:36 → CLT 10:25AA 1704 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 14:00 → BUF 15:54AA 2442 7h 18m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:38 → ATL 18:16DL 1720 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 7h 21m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:59 → DFW 08:44AA 1369 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:00 → BUF 16:11AA 1724 9h 12m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON