Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 938 at 06:48 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 938 TPA 06:48 → BWI 09:15 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1538 TPA 19:05 → BWI 21:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 938 Southwest	TPA 06:48	BWI 09:15	2%	1%	1.9%	no record
WN 3915 Southwest	TPA 10:39	BWI 13:06	7%	3%	1.8%	no record
WN 4597 Southwest	TPA 12:14	BWI 14:41	8%	3%	1.9%	no record
WN 470 Southwest	TPA 15:03	BWI 17:34	11%	4%	2.2%	no record
WN 4330 Southwest	TPA 17:09	BWI 19:36	11%	5%	2.2%	no record
F9 1538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 19:05	BWI 21:49	15%	7%	5.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON