tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 18%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: F9 2684 at 10:07, 11%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 2684 Frontier Flight history → TPA 10:07 CLE 12:44 11% 4% 1.9% 86%
F9 1492 Frontier Flight history → TPA 17:43 CLE 20:22 25% 9% 2.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 5h 17m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 23m Dulles IAD 12:45 → CLE 14:06UA 1709 5h 06m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:23UA 2189 3h 44m Chicago ORD 13:07 → CLE 15:31UA 8200 8h 06m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775 6h 02m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350 7h 27m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 5h 20m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:13 → MSP 17:47DL 2264 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44DL 1392 8h 31m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:35DL 1339 7h 17m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47AA 2798 1h 58m Miami MIA 20:45 → CLE 23:48AA 363 6h 18m 65% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON