Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 653 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 653 TPA 05:30 → CLT 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1974 TPA 18:04 → CLT 19:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 653 American	TPA 05:30	CLT 07:20	4%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 2538 American Flight history →	TPA 08:55	CLT 10:48	6%	3%	1.0%	94%
AA 1704 American Flight history →	TPA 08:36	CLT 10:25	8%	3%	1.0%	91%
AA 1975 American	TPA 10:51	CLT 12:39	10%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 436 American Flight history →	TPA 13:05	CLT 14:58	11%	4%	0.9%	84%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	TPA 15:02	CLT 16:51	15%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 1982 American	TPA 16:43	CLT 18:30	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1974 American	TPA 18:04	CLT 19:51	17%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON