Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2385 TPA 06:46 → DCA 09:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1990 TPA 13:12 → DCA 15:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2385 American Flight history →	TPA 06:46	DCA 09:23	5%	2%	1.3%	100%
WN 3930 Southwest	TPA 10:04	DCA 12:22	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1972 American	TPA 11:49	DCA 14:29	13%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	TPA 21:37	DCA 00:17	13%	6%	1.2%	55%
WN 3196 Southwest	TPA 15:00	DCA 17:17	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1990 American	TPA 13:12	DCA 15:50	14%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON