Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1812 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1812 TPA 08:00 → DEN 10:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3933 TPA 17:48 → DEN 19:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1812 United	TPA 08:00	DEN 10:06	6%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 1113 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:45	DEN 09:34	8%	3%	1.8%	85%
WN 4601 Southwest	TPA 10:53	DEN 12:36	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 683 United Flight history →	TPA 12:22	DEN 14:28	14%	6%	0.9%	87%
UA 1076 United	TPA 16:11	DEN 18:19	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 3933 Southwest	TPA 17:48	DEN 19:36	24%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON