Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1369 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1369 TPA 06:59 → DFW 08:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2512 TPA 18:50 → DFW 20:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1369 American Flight history →	TPA 06:59	DFW 08:44	7%	2%	1.1%	90%
AA 1628 American	TPA 09:04	DFW 10:54	7%	4%	1.1%	no record
F9 1333 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:11	DFW 14:05	9%	4%	1.2%	84%
AA 2516 American Flight history →	TPA 11:30	DFW 13:17	11%	4%	1.0%	77%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	TPA 14:27	DFW 16:19	14%	5%	0.9%	78%
AA 1957 American	TPA 17:21	DFW 19:09	20%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 2512 American Flight history →	TPA 18:50	DFW 20:38	21%	8%	1.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON