Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 1906 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day B6 1906 TPA 07:38 → FLL 08:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4014 TPA 17:54 → FLL 19:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1906 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:38	FLL 08:43	8%	3%	1.7%	91%
B6 2076 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 13:52	FLL 15:09	11%	6%	1.2%	72%
WN 4014 Southwest	TPA 17:54	FLL 19:00	19%	5%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON