Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3935 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day


WN 3935 Southwest	TPA 07:30	HOU 08:41	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 4834 Southwest	TPA 18:36	HOU 19:48	21%	8%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 55m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 22m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 33m	98%	86%
American Details →	TPA 14:27 → DFW 16:19AA 3112	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:40 → HOU 20:08AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 41m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON