tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3939 at 14:09, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3939 Southwest TPA 14:09 IND 16:31 15% 6% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:23UA 2189 3h 24m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 7h 38m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 7h 48m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 21m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → IND 17:42DL 2979 6h 28m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 5h 19m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → LGA 10:15DL 2723 1h 30m New York LGA 11:45 → IND 14:06DL 5642 · flown by Republic 6h 36m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 21m Dulles IAD 12:43 → IND 14:44UA 3543 · flown by Republic 5h 44m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → TPA 08:21 → ORD 10:26AA 354 1h 17m Chicago ORD 11:43 → IND 13:57AA 4713 · flown by Republic 5h 36m 96% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 14:27 → DFW 16:19AA 3112 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:06 → IND 20:29AA 1413 6h 02m 75% 60%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47AA 2798 2h 12m Miami MIA 20:59 → IND 23:50AA 2518 6h 20m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON