tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:44, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 819 Southwest TPA 08:14 LAS 10:00 6% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 45m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 32m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 41m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:32 → SLC 09:00DL 2045 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 8h 29m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659 7h 49m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 38m Dulles IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156 9h 09m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:20DL 1099 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:50DL 919 9h 06m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:50 → DFW 20:38AA 2512 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → LAS 22:30AA 2371 6h 40m 73% 56%
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:22 → EWR 19:19UA 1321 51m Newark EWR 20:10 → LAS 22:27UA 1283 9h 05m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON