tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3941 at 09:02, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3941 Southwest TPA 09:02 MCI 10:53 7% 2% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:32 → SLC 09:00DL 2045 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 8h 25m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 6h 58m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:23UA 2189 3h 17m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 55m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 8h 29m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 2h 31m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 7h 13m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 5h 29m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 6h 16m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 17m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741 5h 54m 96% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47AA 2798 1h 48m Miami MIA 20:35 → MCI 22:56AA 670 6h 26m 65% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON