Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3943 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3943 TPA 07:31 → MDW 09:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3944 TPA 17:32 → MDW 19:24 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3943 Southwest	TPA 07:31	MDW 09:20	7%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 591 Southwest	TPA 11:33	MDW 13:24	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3944 Southwest	TPA 17:32	MDW 19:24	25%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON