Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1740 at 07:27, 7%.

Safest bet that day AA 1740 TPA 07:27 → MIA 08:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2798 TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1740 American Flight history →	TPA 07:27	MIA 08:42	7%	3%	2.0%	95%
AA 2199 American Flight history →	TPA 06:01	MIA 07:14	7%	3%	2.1%	85%
AA 593 American	TPA 10:05	MIA 11:23	15%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 2913 American	TPA 13:58	MIA 15:13	22%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 2798 American Flight history →	TPA 17:30	MIA 18:47	42%	16%	3.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON