tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3947 at 15:21, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3947 Southwest TPA 15:21 MSY 16:01 9% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 22m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 5h 17m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 5h 43m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 59m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:46 → DCA 09:23AA 2385 2h 12m Washington DCA 11:35 → MSY 13:26AA 2586 7h 40m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 6h 40m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678 7h 00m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:40 → IAH 13:21UA 1979 1h 37m Houston IAH 14:58 → MSY 16:24UA 2738 5h 44m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:50 → DFW 20:38AA 2512 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → MSY 23:13AA 1455 5h 23m 72% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON