Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: AA 354 at 08:21, 7%.

Safest bet that day AA 354 TPA 08:21 → ORD 10:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1101 TPA 19:07 → ORD 21:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 354 American Flight history →	TPA 08:21	ORD 10:26	7%	3%	1.6%	92%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	TPA 07:25	ORD 09:23	9%	5%	0.9%	85%
UA 2223 United Flight history →	TPA 12:30	ORD 14:40	16%	8%	0.9%	85%
AA 3168 American	TPA 13:47	ORD 15:53	21%	9%	1.9%	no record
UA 1779 United	TPA 17:46	ORD 20:05	30%	14%	0.9%	no record
UA 1010 United Flight history →	TPA 16:30	ORD 18:40	30%	11%	0.9%	61%
UA 2777 United	TPA 19:26	ORD 21:29	33%	13%	0.9%	no record
AA 1101 American Flight history →	TPA 19:07	ORD 21:15	33%	13%	2.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON