tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1402 American Flight history → TPA 07:30 PHX 09:11 11% 4% 1.8% 62%
WN 3591 Southwest TPA 10:14 PHX 11:37 16% 4% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 8h 01m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:32 → SLC 09:00DL 2045 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 8h 40m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 39m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 8h 20m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 48m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:23UA 2189 1h 49m Chicago ORD 11:12 → PHX 13:05UA 2164 8h 40m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:59 → DFW 08:44AA 1369 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:28 → PHX 11:08AA 2905 7h 09m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 8h 33m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TPA 06:11 → EWR 09:04UA 2439 1h 07m Newark EWR 10:11 → PHX 12:34UA 1289 9h 23m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 47m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → PHX 21:45DL 929 6h 42m 68% 58%
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:22 → EWR 19:19UA 1321 57m Newark EWR 20:16 → PHX 22:27UA 2321 9h 05m 72% 55%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47AA 2798 1h 07m Miami MIA 19:54 → PHX 21:36AA 2107 7h 06m 58% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON