Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1001 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1001 TPA 06:28 → PIT 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3951 TPA 18:04 → PIT 20:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1001 Southwest	TPA 06:28	PIT 08:55	5%	2%	1.8%	no record
WN 2770 Southwest	TPA 07:00	PIT 09:48	8%	3%	1.6%	no record
WN 3951 Southwest	TPA 18:04	PIT 20:36	25%	10%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON