tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1279 Delta Flight history → TPA 09:11 RDU 11:04 6% 3% 1.3% 91%
DL 1275 Delta Flight history → TPA 20:59 RDU 22:55 16% 8% 1.3% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052 5h 20m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 12m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 6h 20m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 5h 45m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600 6h 11m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:23UA 2189 1h 25m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 6h 36m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 2h 39m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 7h 06m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → TPA 06:11 → EWR 09:04UA 2439 1h 56m Newark EWR 11:00 → RDU 12:36UA 1410 6h 25m 100% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON