tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Bush, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1720 Alaska TPA 18:31 SAN 20:02 28% 9% 2.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 39m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SAN 12:53DL 540 9h 38m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:32 → SLC 08:59DL 2045 2h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 8h 36m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 26m Detroit DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:25DL 761 8h 55m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:19DL 924 9h 05m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:40DL 712 10h 06m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 19:15 → LAX 21:17DL 749 1h 28m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223 1h 47m Chicago ORD 16:27 → SAN 18:52UA 2138 9h 22m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 48m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 6h 36m 71% 62%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47AA 2798 1h 19m Miami MIA 20:06 → SAN 22:33AA 3010 8h 03m 52% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON