Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3956 at 15:31, 23%.

Nonstops that day


WN 3956 Southwest	TPA 15:31	SAT 17:06	23%	6%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	7h 08m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	6h 10m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:58 → SAT 17:29DL 1465	7h 15m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	2h 33m Detroit	DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458	8h 21m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 17:21 → SAT 18:48DL 2893	7h 14m	99%	83%
American Details →	TPA 06:59 → DFW 08:44AA 1369	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:44 → SAT 12:07AA 413	6h 08m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → SAT 00:20 +1DL 1508	7h 17m	97%	82%
American Details →	TPA 08:55 → CLT 10:48AA 2538	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 14:38 → SAT 16:31AA 2934	8h 36m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON