Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 25 at 08:09, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 25 Southwest	TPA 08:09	SDF 10:17	7%	2%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	5h 36m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	5h 42m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 35m	100%	89%
United Details →	TPA 16:22 → EWR 19:19UA 1321	2h 10m Newark	EWR 21:29 → SDF 23:51UA 3609 · flown by Republic	7h 29m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	6h 23m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → SDF 21:36DL 2842	6h 18m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	6h 39m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON