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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1090 Delta Flight history → TPA 07:16 SEA 10:10 11% 4% 1.2% 88%
AS 640 Alaska Flight history → TPA 07:08 SEA 10:13 18% 4% 1.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 8h 15m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 20m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 47m Dulles IAD 13:09 → SEA 15:57UA 1824 9h 57m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 9h 49m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 8h 58m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 51m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 39m New York JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 10h 45m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 3h 23m Detroit DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 11h 01m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON