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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1712 United TPA 06:59 SFO 09:49 8% 3% 1.0% no record
UA 1957 United TPA 15:24 SFO 18:11 16% 6% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 3h 29m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 38m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 8h 40m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 10h 23m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:38 → ATL 18:16DL 1720 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 23:49DL 656 10h 11m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823 8h 49m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 2h 54m Detroit DTW 16:17 → SFO 18:14DL 442 10h 33m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 24m New York JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363 10h 28m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → TPA 10:59 → PHL 13:38AA 2807 1h 58m Philadelphia PHL 15:36 → SFO 18:39AA 3295 10h 40m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:30 → ORD 18:40UA 1010 58m Chicago ORD 19:38 → SFO 23:17UA 649 9h 47m 74% 62%
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:50 → DFW 20:38AA 2512 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → SFO 23:09AA 2522 7h 19m 65% 49%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47AA 2798 1h 59m Miami MIA 20:46 → SFO 00:00 +1AA 2347 9h 30m 65% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON