Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1259 TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2837 TUL 18:49 → ATL 22:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1259 Delta Flight history →	TUL 06:00	ATL 09:04	3%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2754 Delta Flight history →	TUL 10:04	ATL 13:05	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2620 Delta Flight history →	TUL 12:41	ATL 15:45	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2837 Delta Flight history →	TUL 18:49	ATL 22:00	6%	3%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON