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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 25m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456 5h 15m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 5h 46m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → TUL 12:34 → DFW 13:53AA 2352 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:24 → AUS 18:32AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 5h 58m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:00 → DFW 07:33AA 1090 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:43 → AUS 10:57AA 3054 4h 57m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 7h 04m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:04 → IAH 10:57UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 3h 26m Houston IAH 14:23 → AUS 15:30UA 2483 6h 26m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → AUS 20:22DL 1170 7h 41m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON