tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 5128 at 16:35, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5128 American flown by PSA Flight history → TUL 16:35 DCA 20:41 19% 4% 1.2% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 5h 47m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 09m Chicago ORD 09:57 → DCA 13:13AA 315 5h 38m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 04m Houston IAH 07:47 → DCA 12:04UA 512 6h 04m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 59m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 8h 31m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:00 → DFW 07:33AA 1090 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:34AA 2399 6h 34m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 03m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 12m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON