tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 278 Southwest TUL 06:10 LAS 07:02 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 364 Southwest TUL 14:39 LAS 15:38 9% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 13m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 07m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 37m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 02m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → TUL 08:55 → PHX 09:51AA 3434 · flown by Envoy 3h 46m Phoenix PHX 13:37 → LAS 14:58AA 2631 8h 03m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 9h 48m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 01m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:50DL 919 9h 09m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m San Diego SAN 17:15 → LAS 18:41AS 2018 · flown by Horizon 5h 34m 49% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON