tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 00m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292 6h 57m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 6h 55m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 07m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 12:29 → MCO 14:16AA 2117 6h 16m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 46m Chicago ORD 10:34 → MCO 14:25AA 3293 6h 50m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:00 → DFW 07:32AA 1090 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:32 → MCO 13:22AA 2750 6h 22m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:04 → IAH 10:57UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 1h 28m Houston IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662 6h 00m 97% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON