Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2063 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2063 TUL 05:54 → ORD 07:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4098 TUL 16:02 → ORD 17:58 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2063 United	TUL 05:54	ORD 07:48	12%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 3590 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 06:35	ORD 08:48	15%	5%	2.7%	85%
AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 10:54	ORD 12:59	19%	7%	2.2%	83%
OO 5442 SkyWest	TUL 09:57	ORD 12:01	20%	7%	1.9%	no record
AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 19:20	ORD 21:20	30%	9%	2.7%	50%
MQ 4098 Envoy	TUL 16:02	ORD 17:58	30%	12%	3.8%	no record
UA 4483 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 18:20	ORD 20:30	29%	10%	5.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON