Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1155 Southwest	TUL 10:34	PHX 11:12	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 3434 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 08:55	PHX 09:51	7%	2%	0.6%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa	2h 57m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	7h 34m	100%	90%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Denver	DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782	6h 56m	99%	89%
American Details →	TUL 06:00 → DFW 07:33AA 1090	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315	6h 54m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 03m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	6h 12m	99%	88%
United Details →	TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa	3h 36m Houston	IAH 14:23 → PHX 15:22UA 1798	8h 22m	100%	87%
United Details →	TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	6h 51m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → PHX 18:53DL 836	8h 12m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON