tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 11:44, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2340 Horizon TUL 14:48 SAN 16:17 16% 3% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:20DL 924 9h 16m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:41DL 712 9h 00m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 08m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → TUL 10:54 → ORD 12:59AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 2h 13m Chicago ORD 15:12 → SAN 17:42AA 1543 8h 48m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 08m Chicago ORD 09:56 → SAN 12:28AA 2131 7h 53m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → TUL 12:34 → DFW 13:53AA 2352 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:04 → SAN 18:25AA 2266 7h 51m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:00 → DFW 07:33AA 1090 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:24 → SAN 10:38AA 2034 6h 38m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON