Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 17:10, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 2220 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 18:09	SEA 20:17	27%	10%	0.0%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	8h 45m	99%	89%
United Details →	TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa	3h 17m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SEA 12:47UA 2205	9h 47m	100%	85%
United Details →	TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa	3h 23m Houston	IAH 12:09 → SEA 15:00UA 2228	10h 00m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	8h 35m	100%	84%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Denver	DEN 09:51 → SEA 11:51UA 1253	7h 51m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	8h 24m	94%	83%
American Details →	TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 12:34 → SEA 15:24AA 506	10h 24m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON