Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: OO 5575 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day


OO 5575 SkyWest	TUS 06:49	ORD 12:31	6%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2537 American Flight history →	TUS 12:28	ORD 18:17	18%	5%	0.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 13:49 → ATL 20:45DL 937	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	8h 04m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	9h 45m	98%	86%
American Details →	TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	8h 50m	99%	85%
United Details →	TUS 13:16 → SFO 15:54UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m San Francisco	SFO 18:24 → ORD 00:49 +1UA 1958	9h 33m	96%	85%
American Details →	TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest	1h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 09:32 → ORD 15:49AA 2998	7h 47m	98%	84%
American Details →	TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:31 → ORD 23:56AA 1620	8h 38m	98%	84%
American Details →	TUS 08:44 → PHX 09:57AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	2h 18m Phoenix	PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338	7h 24m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	8h 13m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON