Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4441 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4441 TUS 07:29 → PHX 08:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6207 TUS 16:52 → PHX 18:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4441 Southwest	TUS 07:29	PHX 08:28	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4888 SkyWest	TUS 06:55	PHX 08:03	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 08:44	PHX 09:57	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 6514 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 10:11	PHX 11:11	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 1949 Southwest	TUS 16:04	PHX 17:02	11%	5%	0.4%	no record
OO 6370 SkyWest	TUS 12:02	PHX 13:08	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 9918 SkyWest	TUS 08:20	PHX 09:27	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6332 SkyWest	TUS 14:14	PHX 15:24	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	TUS 14:53	PHX 15:54	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 6207 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 16:52	PHX 18:01	15%	6%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON