tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1492 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1492 Southwest TUS 06:19 SAN 07:47 7% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1427 Southwest TUS 09:49 SAN 11:17 17% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 03m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → TUS 10:11 → PHX 11:11AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Phoenix PHX 14:12 → SAN 15:36AA 1951 5h 25m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 6h 50m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon 1h 17m Portland PDX 15:03 → SAN 17:31AS 425 7h 00m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → TUS 07:10 → SFO 09:50UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 6h 58m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:16 → SFO 15:54UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → SAN 20:25UA 1577 7h 09m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:58 → SAN 12:15AA 3109 7h 14m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → TUS 07:01 → DFW 11:32AA 2555 1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → SAN 14:24AA 1769 7h 23m 92% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:16 → SFO 15:54UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → SAN 18:39UA 1561 5h 23m 74% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON