Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3679 TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 641 TUS 14:29 → SEA 17:44 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3679 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:53	SEA 15:23	10%	4%	0.5%	88%
OO 3159 SkyWest	TUS 07:08	SEA 10:36	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 641 Alaska Flight history →	TUS 14:29	SEA 17:44	17%	3%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON