Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:10	SFO 09:50	13%	9%	0.6%	65%
UA 5583 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 13:16	SFO 15:54	15%	6%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	6h 09m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	4h 58m	97%	86%
American Details →	TUS 08:44 → PHX 09:57AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	1h 48m Phoenix	PHX 11:45 → SFO 13:50AA 3199	5h 06m	100%	85%
United Details →	TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa	1h 20m Houston	IAH 12:33 → SFO 14:28UA 2611	7h 51m	97%	84%
American Details →	TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 10:55 → SFO 12:27AA 1110	6h 25m	100%	83%
American Details →	TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:24 → SFO 13:06AA 2387	8h 05m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	4h 56m	97%	81%
American Details →	TUS 10:11 → PHX 11:11AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Phoenix	PHX 14:05 → SFO 16:05AA 2860	5h 54m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON